Although oil prices are now half what they used to be three years ago, Big Oil is better positioned now than it was when oil prices were sky high, Michele Della Vigna, co-head of European equity research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC in an interview on Monday. In the dizzy spending days between 2010 and 2014, when oil prices were above US$100, those high prices were actually “dreadful time” for the international oil majors, because everyone was eating the lunch, and Big Oil’s competitive positioning was destroyed, according to Della…
Authored by Antonius Aquinas,
The Los Angeles City Council’s recent, crazed decision to replace Christopher Columbus Day with one celebrating “indigenous peoples” can be traced to the falsification of history and denigration of Europe…
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Ethereum (ETHUSD) Weekly/Daily
Ethereum (ETHUSD) is forming its 1st red weekly candle in 6 weeks as profittaking kicks in after ETHUSD briefly tested the psychologically key 400 whole figure resistance level. With the current red weekly candle quickly lengthening reversing most gains over the last 2 weeks, a bearish Island Reversal is forming. Significantly, ETHUSD is arguably breaking upchannel support (on the weekly and daily chart). The daily chart provides a clearer set of warnings for bulls with the RSI, Stochastics and MACD decisively sliding lower. Nevertheless, with the weekly MACD red line still flattish and yet to turn down, bears may soon lock in profits and trigger a short-covering rally at some point in the next day or so. Any bounce will be short-lived with longer term bears having gotten the upper hand with today’s weekly/daily chart upchannel support break.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Weekly/Daily
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is forming its 1st red weekly candle in 6 weeks as profittaking kicks in after BTCUSD briefly tested the psychologically key 5000 whole figure resistance level. While the red weekly candle is still just beginning to form, and far from being bearish just yet (given its small body so far), the technicals on BTCUSD can rapidly change within a day given its volatility. Although the daily chart is appearing bearish with the RSI, Stochastics and MACD tiring, the weekly MACD continues sloping up suggesting there may be a bit more upside in the next day or so before the bulls throw in the towel and bears become more aggressive. Significantly, BTCUSD is testing upchannel support (on the weekly and daily chart), and has a high likelihood of breaking upchannel support based on Ethereum (ETHUSD)’s break today of a similar upchannel support on its weekly/daily chart.
Click here for today’s technical analysis on USDJPY
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Russian oil major Rosneft has signed both a strategic cooperation agreement and a contract with CEFC China Energy Company for the supply of …The post Rosneft and CEFC sign agreement for supply of Russian <b>crude oil</b> appeared fir…
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Authored by David Stockman via Daily Reckoning blog,
Someone should remind the Donald that he actually is President and that it’s high time he accomplished something. Anything.
Back on April 21st, for example, he promised that a core feature of h…
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has acknowledged that he spoke by phone 15 times — within a 19-day period — to a prominent Hebrew-language daily in the run-up to the country’s 2013 general election. Israeli media, including the Jerusalem Post, reported on Monday that Netanyahu had disclosed his frequent calls with Israel Hayom (Israel Today) Editor Amos Regev in statements submitted to Israel’s Supreme Court on Sunday. According to the Jerusalem Post, the calls were made in the weeks running up to Israel’s 2013 general election in which Netanyahu clinched the premiership. On Thursday, Netanyahu told the court that he had spoken roughly 200 times with Regev — and about 100 times with the paper’s U.S.-based owner, Sheldon Adelson — […]
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While stocks have been limping higher since around 2am ET (following headlines on an imminent ICBM launch) they remain lower from Friday’s close:
But precious metals the biggest gainers of post-North Korean “hydrogen bomb” testing safe haven flows.
Silver broke above resistance at early June highs to test $18 and the highest levels since April 25th.
But that was clearly not acceptable to someone:
At 0451ET, someone decided it would be an opportune time to dump over a quarter of a billion dollars notional of gold into the futures market…
Taking out the Asia opening low stops. For now the gains in PMs are holding.
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Crude Palm Oil Futures historical prices: closing price, open, high, low, change and %change of the Crude Palm Oil Futures for the selected range of …The post <b>Crude</b> palm <b>oil</b> price bloomberg appeared first on…
A month ago, we wrote about the bitcoin fork. We described the fork:
Picture a bank, the old-fashioned kind. Call it Acme (sorry, we watched too much Coyote and Road Runner growing up). A group of disgruntled employees leave. They take a copy of the book of accounts. They set up a new bank across the street, Wile E Bank. To win customers, they say if you had an account at Acme Bank, you now have an account at Wile, with the same balance!
This fork came about from a disagreement among the bitcoin miners, those who control the blockchain and hence the currency. The equivalent of the disgruntled Acme Bank group left to form bitcoin cash, the equivalent of Wile E. Bank. However, it has often been said that necessity is the mother of invention. Applied to bitcoin, that means that what happened due to irreconcilable differences in this case, could also occur deliberately later.
Why would someone do this deliberately? Well, as of this writing (Saturday afternoon), bitcoin cash is trading for $568.28. This copy of the original bank ledger is worth over fahv hunnert Benjahminns! Actually, not the ledger. Each record in the ledger. The ledger as a whole is worth $9.4 billion.
For anyone—or a cartel of someones—who can fork bitcoin, there are now 9.4 billion reasons to do so. Think about that. Take as long as you need.
Now, we don’t want to disparage anyone. We are absolutely certain that everyone who is speculating to get rich in bitcoin will turn away from forking. It just doesn’t feel right, and it couldn’t possibly be moral to create forks on purpose, to get richer quicker.
But if someone did wish to do it, there is a powerful incentive. Economics tells us that if a powerful incentive exists to do something, then someone will do it. For example, if the government subsidizes borrowers by pushing down the interest rate then there will be all sorts of borrowing that would otherwise not occur (to finance all sorts of activities that would otherwise make no sense). Or, if it subsidizes insurance for people who build in flood plains, then many people will build in flood plains.
We now live in a world where altcoins are proliferating. There is a crypto currency named for a set of Internet memes called Doge. There is PotCoin for the marijuana industry, and even PepeCash and PutinCoin. There is a coin named for the most popular four-letter word. By this standard, it makes sense to fork bitcoin as many times as one can. To fork and fork and fork until the marginal ForkCoin has value lower than the cost of forking.
Snark aside, and in all seriousness, the point of our article a month ago is that the fork shows the contradiction in a ledger of liabilities unbacked by assets. By dispensing with the need for assets, the liabilities can proliferate—fork—and there can be any number of alt liabilities too.
Our point in this article is that this contradiction creates a powerful perverse incentive, that someone sooner or later will take up. We prefer the term “perverse incentive” to “unintended consequence”, because it puts the focus where it belongs. We look at what is profitable for someone to do, rather than the real or alleged intentions of the designers. In some cases, the intention is obviously evil. For example, Obamacare was designed to destroy the insurers and drive America towards socialized medicine. In other cases, perhaps in bitcoin, the designer did not foresee much less intend the outcome.
However, here we are. Both the possibility to fork and the incentive are now obvious. We would not bet against it, as we would not bet against Boromir putting on the One Ring. In a Middle Earth minute.
We have not much focused on price, other than how rising price makes bitcoin unsuitable as money or how bitcoin does not have a firm bid. We do not subscribe to the view that bad means the price must go lower soon. However, let’s look at price of an asset in a bubble starting with the dollar.
The dollar, it is often and loudly asserted, has value only because of faith. As soon as the faith is pricked, the air will rush out of the bubble. This partly explains why the gold bugs latch on to every story about gold repatriation in Germany or Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin visiting Fork Knox. Mnuchin said, “I assume the gold is still there,” and thus began quite a tempest in a tea pot.
The belief is that as soon as the one-awful-fact-they-don’t-want-you-to-know becomes known, then the dollar will collapse. And gold will go to $65,000 (price measured in collapsed dollars). It’s a quest for the holy grail. Now, we enjoy tilting at windmills as much as Don Quixote, but this view is wrong. The dollar does not have value because of some fragile, collective faith.
The dollar has value because of the struggles of the debtors. What are you willing to sell, in order to avoid foreclosure on your house, repossession of your car, or bankruptcy of your business? Your labor and the products of your effort. As much as you need to sell, in order to service your debts and avoid default.
However, there is no real borrowing in bitcoin. What holds up the value of bitcoin?
There is a risk that a series of forks could prick this bubble of faith.
There were big moves in the metals markets this week. The price of gold was up $31 and that of silver $0.56. The price of gold hasn’t been this high in just about a year, which is another way of looking at the one-year low price of the dollar. From its high over 27.5mg gold in mid-December 2016, the dollar has dropped 11% to its current 23.5mg.
Will the dollar fall further? In the short term, anything is possible. Once speculators smell blood in the water (i.e. a strong looking chart pattern), they may enter bigger trades with leverage. We will, of course, see that as a rising basis which is a contrarian signal. In the longer term, prices cannot go up too far or remain high if there is not a renewed demand to hold gold metal.
One possible driver of this is portfolio rebalancing by those who bought a small allocation of bitcoin or Etherium which is now not-small. Will these folks sell their cryptocurrencies, which are anti-dollar plays, to buy more dollars? Or will some of them buy real money? This remains to be seen.
As always, we are interested in the fundamentals of supply and demand as measured by the basis. We will show intraday basis charts this week as there are some interesting features.
But first, here are the charts of the prices of gold and silver, and the gold-silver ratio.
Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. The ratio moved down.
In this graph, we show both bid and offer prices for the gold-silver ratio. If you were to sell gold on the bid and buy silver at the ask, that is the lower bid price. Conversely, if you sold silver on the bid and bought gold at the offer, that is the higher offer price.
For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.
Here is the gold graph (Dec contract), this time showing intraday resolution for the full week (here is the regular gold basis chart).
We have posted many graphs showing basis correlating with price. That is, as price rises so does basis. Basis is the spread between futures and spot. A rising basis means futures are rising faster than spot, which occurs if the buying pressure is occurring in the futures market. If the buyers are mostly speculators.
Something should immediately leap out at you on this graph. This relationship broke down Thursday afternoon (GMT). First there is a minor sell off seen in the price move from about $1,307 to $1,305. The basis drops from about 1.17% to 1.12%. The basis begins to rise with rising price after that, but it trails. It recovers the 1.17% level but only when price is about $1,317—ten bucks higher. Then as price keeps rising, basis is sideways until midnight. Basis makes one more rally approaching 7am (GMT), then falls back sharply as price continues to rise. Especially late in the day. Even if we ignore the last part below 1.11% as liquidity is dropping with the rest of the world offline and only whatever trading volume remains in the US Friday afternoon before a major holiday weekend (Monday is Labor Day), we still see a falling basis with rising price.
Demand for gold metal has picked up, even at this higher relative price. One of gold’s unique properties is that demand can rise as price rises, without any particular limit (even if it hasn’t happened much in recent years).
To put this into perspective, we would not characterize the current market state as a gold shortage. Every contract is in contango (Sep basis is over 0.5%). The continuous gold basis has been in a rising trend for two months. Gold is not exactly scarce, nor facing massive demand for physical metal and shortage. As our old buddy Aragorn would say, “today is not that day.”
However, the basis move is notable in contrast to the price move. The rise in basis has not been much, considering how much the price has risen—about $120 in two months. Now the December contract, which matures in under 120 days, has a basis below that of 3-month LIBOR (about 1.3%).
The calculated Monetary Metals gold fundamental price was up $25, to $1,355.
Now let’s look at silver, with a similar graph of the week’s action (here is the regular silver basis chart).
At the risk of turning these charts into Rorschach Tests, this one does not look the same to us at all. The silver basis tracks the silver price, though a skew occurred on Wednesday and widened on Thursday. The movement of both traces were a close fit on Thu and Fri. Note the spike down in the basis at the end of the day on Friday (as in gold, though gold had been falling all during the London day through the US day).
Our calculated Monetary Metals silver fundamental price increased $0.46. And, though our calculated Monetary Metals gold:silver ratio fundamental price has dropped a bit, it was rising the last three days of the week.
© 2017 Monetary Metals
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With the US markets closed today, market events this week will be dominated by G10 central bank meetings, among which the ECB stands out, but also notable will be the RBA, BoC and Riksbank. Consensus does not expect policy changes yet. There is also a busy calendar for the UK (PMIs, housing, IP and trade balance) along with GDP/IP releases elsewhere. In EMs, there will be monetary policy meetings in Brazil, Poland and Malaysia. Brazil BCB is expected to cut rates by 100bp.
Central bank preview:
- The ECB remains trapped between a strong(er) EUR and a rapidly shrinking universe of monetizable bonds; as a result Draghi will emphasize the impact of a strong EUR on inflation dynamics but will refrain from disclosing the destiny of QE after the 2018 expiry. Given the recent EUR appreciation, the ECB will prefer waiting for the September FOMC before committing on QE. Most sellside desks call for the October meeting where BofA expects a 6m QE extension at €40bn/month.
- The RBA is also expected to remain on hold with communication potentially getting more interesting now that forecasts and Parliamentary testimony are out of the way. On the longer term, the domestic housing market in particular to have a more significant influence on monetary policy with the balance of risks favoring rates up.
- For the BoC, unexpectedly strong economic growth, below neutral o/n rates and the Fed on a hiking cycle means that the Canada should follow with a hiking cycle as well. This said, low inflation and inflation expectations along with CAD appreciation do not argue for urgency. As a result while some have said the BOC’s meeting is “live”, most expected the central bank to remain on hold in September and hikes +25bp in October.
In other data:
- In the US, we get durable & capital goods orders (F), trade balance, ISM non-mfg and multiple Fed speakers in the agenda.
- In the Eurozone, beyond the ECB, we have retail sales, industrial production and GDP.
- In the UK, we have PMIs, industrial production, construction output, and trade balance.
- In Japan, we have monetary base, PMIs, trade balance and final print of Q2 GDP.
- In Canada, beyond central bank rates decision, we also have labor market report.
- In Australia, focus is on RBA’s rates meeting, while other economic releases include trade balance, retail sales, GDP, home loans and investment lending.
Below is a breakdown of key events by day, courtesy of Deutsche Bank:
- It’s a quiet start to the week today with Eurozone PPI and the Sentix investor confidence reading the only data of note. With the US closed there is no data scheduled across the pond.
- Onto Tuesday, Japan and China’s (Caixin) service and composite PMIs are due early in the morning. Then we have UK and Italy’s service and composite PMI for August. There is also the final readings for service and composite PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany and France. Elsewhere, the Eurozone’s retail sales and final readings for 2Q GDP are due. In the US, there is factory orders for July and final readings for durable goods and capital goods orders.
- Turning to Wednesday, Germany’s factory orders for July is the only data due out. Over in the US, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the Fed’s Beige book, trade balance and final Markit services and composite PMI are also due.
- For Thursday, Germany’s industrial production for July are due along with France’s trade balance and current account balance stats. Elsewhere, house price data in the UK and Q2 GDP (final revision) for the Eurozone is due. This is all before the ECB meeting around midday. Over in the US, there is initial jobless claims, continuing claims and final readings for Q2 nonfarm productivity due.
- Finally, on Friday, Japan’s trade balance and current account balance along with final readings for 2Q GDP will be due in early morning. China will also release its August import / export stats. In Europe, Germany’s trade balance, current account balance and export / imports stats are due. In the UK and France, industrial production, manufacturing production and trade balance stats are also due. Over in the US, there is the final reading for wholesale inventories along with consumer credit data.
Away from the data, today we’ll have the second round of negotiations for NAFTA in Mexico. On Tuesday US congress returns from the August recess to tackle issues such as the debt ceiling. Elsewhere, Fed Governor Brainard, the Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Kaplan will speak at separate functions. Turning to Wednesday, UK PM Theresa May will face opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn in parliament and the IMF’s managing director Lagarde will speak at a conference in Korea. President Trump will also meet House Speaker Ryan, Senate Leader McConnell and a few others to discuss the coming debt ceiling. Then onto Thursday, in the UK, Brexit Secretary Davis faces questions in the House of Commons about the state of Brexit talks. In the US, Cleveland Fed President Mester and NY Fed President Dudley are schedule to speak. Elsewhere, the IMF Managing Director Lagarde, BOJ Deputy Governor and BOK Governor will meet for a two-day conference on growth in Seoul. Finally, on Friday, the Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak on consumer behaviour in credit.
It is a quieter, holiday-shortened week in the US, where the key economic release this week is ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week. Additionally, the Beige Book for the September FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.
Here is a full breakdown of what to expect courtesy of Goldman:
Monday, September 4
- U.S. Labor Day holiday. US markets are closed, and there will be no major data releases.
Tuesday, September 5
- 07:30 AM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will give a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at a breakfast hosted by the Economic Club of New York. There will be a live webcast of the speech, and audience Q&A is expected.
- 10:00 AM Factory orders, July (GS -3.3%, consensus -3.2%, last +3.0%); Durable goods orders, July final (last -6.8%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, July final (last +0.5%); Core capital goods orders, July final (last +0.4%); Core capital goods shipments, July final (last +1.0%): We estimate factory orders declined 3.3% in July following a 3.0% increase in June – driven by a decline in commercial aircraft orders. Core measures in the July durable goods report were strong, with better-than-expected growth and upward revisions in core capital goods shipments.
- 12:30 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a moderated Q&A at an event hosted by the Carlson School of Management in Minneapolis. Audience Q&A is expected.
- 01:10 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will also give a speech at a town hall event at the University of Minneapolis. Audience Q&A is expected.
- 07:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will participate in a moderated discussion at an event hosted by the Dallas Business Club. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
Wednesday, September 6
- 10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing index, August (GS 56.0, consensus 55.5, last 53.9): Regional service sector surveys were stronger on net in August, with notable gains in the New York Fed (+12.4pt to +11.7), Richmond Fed (+10pt to +22), Philly Fed (+8.4pt to +31.8), and Dallas Fed (+4.6pt to +15.1) non-manufacturing surveys. We expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to rebound 2.1pt to 56.0 in the August report following a 3.5pt decline in July. Overall, our non-manufacturing survey tracker rose 2.2pt to 56.3 in August, suggestive of a solid pace of growth in business activity.
- 08:30 AM Trade balance, July (GS -$44.8bn, consensus -$44.6bn, last -$43.6bn): We estimate the trade deficit widened by $1.2bn in July. The Advance Economic Indicators report last week showed a wider goods trade deficit, and elevated export growth in recent months suggests scope for deterioration in the trade balance.
- 09:45 AM Markit US services PMI, August final (consensus 56.9, last 56.9)
- 02:00 PM Beige Book, September FOMC meeting period: The Fed’s Beige book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The July Beige Book noted that activity expanded across all districts, though the pace of growth varied. Labor markets continued to tighten, and wage pressures had risen since the prior report. In the September Beige Book, we look for additional anecdotes related to the state of consumption, price inflation, and wage growth.
Thursday, September 7
- 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity (qoq saar), Q2 final (GS +1.4%, consensus +1.2%, last +0.9%); Unit labor costs, Q2 final (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.6%): We estimate Q2 non-farm productivity will be revised up in the second vintage by 0.5pp to +1.4%, above the 0.75% trend achieved on average during this expansion. Similarly, we expect Q2 unit labor costs – compensation per hour divided by output per hour –to be revised down by 0.5pp to 0.1% (qoq saar).
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended September 2 (GS 250k, consensus 242k, last 236k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended August 26 (consensus 1,945k, last 1,942k): We estimate initial jobless claims rose 14k to 250k in the week ended September 2, reflecting a rise in Texas filings related to Hurricane Harvey. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have declined in recent weeks, following an early-summer rebound.
- 12:15 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester will give a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at an event jointly hosted by the Economic Club of Pittsburgh, World Affairs Council, CFA Society of Pittsburgh, and the Association for Financial Professionals. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
- 07:00 PM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley will give a speech titled “The U.S. Economic Outlook and the Implications for Monetary Policy” at an event hosted by the Money Marketeers of New York University. Audience Q&A is expected.
- 07:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic will take part in a moderated Q&A session on his views about the U.S. economy at an event hosted by the Atlanta Fed.
- 08:15 PM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George will give a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the Omaha Economic Forum in Omaha, Nebraska. Audience Q&A is expected.
Friday, September 8
- 8:45 AM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker will give a speech on “Consumer Finance Issues” at the New Perspectives on Consumer Behavior in Credit and Payments Markets Conference in Philadelphia.
- 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, July final (consensus +0.4%, last +0.6%)
- 03:00 PM Consumer credit, July (consensus +$15.0bn, last +$12.4bn)
Source: BofA, ING, Goldman, DB